Auswertung der Europawahlen in Deutschland

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  • Auswertung der Europawahlen in Deutschland

    Wahlfieber Team, 06.06.2024 01:09
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Europawahlen dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2009.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können en detail an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

    *******

    Legende (für den Schnelleinstieg):

    • MAF: mittlerer absoluter Fehler --- oft auch MAE - Mean absolute error
    • MAPF: mittlerer absoluter prozentualer Fehler - oft auch MAPE- Mean absolute percentage error
    • MQF: mittlerer quadratischer Fehler--- oft auch MSE- Mean squared error
    • NOTE: aus den zuvor angeführten Fehlern ermittelte Gesamtgüte einer Prognose (angelehnt an gängige Schulnoten)
    • R: Abkürzung für "Rang" (innerhalb der in der jeweiligen Tabelle aufgeführten Prognosen)
    • X: diese Prognose fließt nicht in die Auswertung und/oder Durchschnittsberechnung ein

    *******

    Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Europawahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

    *******

    *******

    Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

    Fehlermeldungen, Anmerkungen oder Ergänzungen bitte ggf. per Mail an den Support oder an geeigneter Stelle im Forum.

    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Auswertung der Europawahl 2009

    Wahlfieber Team, 06.06.2024 01:13, Reply to #1
    #2

    folgt

    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Auswertung der Europawahl 2014

    Wahlfieber Team, 06.06.2024 01:13, Reply to #2
    #3

    ..

    Europawahl 2014 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ..

    CDU/CSUSPDGrüneFDPLinkeAfDPiratenAndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFRang
    Ergebnis 200937,9020,8012,1011,007,500,000,7010,00
    Prognosen 2014
    Wahlbörsen *
    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs35,8823,6910,002,848,108,441,899,162,491,2014,972,443
    weitere Wahlbörsen
    PESM Prognosys36,9024,969,483,538,028,021,687,411,890,898,481,331
    CDU/CSUSPDGrüneFDPLinkeAfDPiratenAndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFRang
    Umfragen
    FGW - Politbarometer II37,5026,5010,003,507,507,000,008,002,440,7416,161,022
    FGW - Politbarometer I38,0027,0011,003,008,006,000,007,00X2,650,8918,851,38
    Infratest Dimap - ARD37,0027,009,003,009,007,000,008,002,740,9620,281,355
    Insa36,0028,0011,004,009,007,000,005,002,900,9822,671,517
    YouGov39,0025,0010,004,009,006,002,005,002,841,6118,933,656
    CDU/CSUSPDGrüneFDPLinkeAfDPiratenAndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFRang
    Wahltipps *
    Wahlrecht.de37,3025,0010,504,008,507,300,007,402,700,9919,231,604


    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen36,3924,339,743,198,068,231,798,292,141,0211,061,67
    Umfragen37,3826,6310,003,638,636,750,007,002,390,8815,171,05
    Wahltipps37,3025,0010,504,008,507,300,007,402,700,9919,231,60
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summe37,0825,7410,003,558,457,250,007,942,070,8011,140,94
    Ergebnis 201435,3627,2710,703,367,397,041,457,43
    CDU/CSUSPDGrüneFDPLinkeAfDPiratenAndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFRang
    Link prediction
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  • Auswertung der Europawahl 2019

    Wahlfieber Team, 06.06.2024 01:51, Reply to #3
    #4

    ..

    Europawahl 2019 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ..

    CDU/CSUSPDGrüneLinkeAfDFDPAndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFRang
    Ergebnis 201435,3027,3010,707,407,103,409,40
    Prognosen 2019
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs27,6616,8618,217,0212,056,1912,012,211,2611,511,826
    WaFi intern - Schlussk.
    weitere Wahlbörsen
    PESM Prognosys27,7616,7718,256,8211,996,4611,952,201,2411,531,735
    CDU/CSUSPDGrüneLinkeAfDFDPAndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFRang
    Umfragen
    FGW - Politbarometer28,0017,5018,506,5012,005,5012,001,921,088,501,513
    Infratest Dimap - ARD28,0017,0017,007,0012,007,0012,002,511,5114,343,0311
    Civey29,1015,9018,107,2012,306,3011,102,281,2112,332,099
    Insa28,0015,5018,007,0012,008,0011,502,601,4616,062,7412
    Ipsos27,0017,0018,007,0012,006,0013,002,161,2610,642,144
    weitere Umfr.-Prognosen
    DAWUM28,0016,6018,006,9012,106,5011,902,241,2511,951,887
    CDU/CSUSPDGrüneLinkeAfDFDPAndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFRang
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)27,0016,0019,506,5012,006,5012,501,920,949,021,142
    Prognosys Master Vote28,0016,8018,006,9012,006,5011,802,261,2812,111,938
    PrognosUmfragen27,0015,0018,506,5014,006,5012,502,391,4612,902,8310
    Romani seniores, Aenii27,5015,5018,506,5012,006,0013,001,840,927,971,221
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen27,7116,8218,236,9212,026,3311,982,201,2511,521,77
    Umfragen28,2816,4817,906,9312,086,7011,652,301,2812,602,02
    Expertenprognosen27,3815,8318,636,6012,506,3812,452,041,069,921,50
    Sonstige Prognosen28,0016,6018,006,9012,106,5011,902,241,2511,951,88
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summe27,8216,3118,236,8012,226,5012,022,181,1911,371,69
    Ergebnis 201928,8715,8220,535,5010,975,4212,89
    CDU/CSUSPDGrüneLinkeAfDFDPAndereSumMAFMAPFMQFRang
    Link prediction
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  • Auswertung der Europawahl 2024

    Wahlfieber Team, 17.07.2024 02:46, Reply to #4
    #5

    ..

    Europawahl 2024 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ..

    CDU/ CSUGrüneSPDAfDLinkeFDPBSWFreie W.AndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Ergebnis 201928,9020,5015,8011,005,505,400,002,2010,70
    Prognosen 2024
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber30,0413,6313,6915,362,744,227,063,0110,251,730,647,190,674
    Wahlfieber -  intern29,2412,3213,5715,422,704,086,912,6513,111,680,626,810,642
    detaill. Wahlfieber-Werte
    Wahlfieber - 7 Tage30,4113,7313,7414,812,923,617,053,0210,71X2,080,7910,480,91
    WaFi-intern - 7 Tage29,4413,5513,6315,172,723,786,842,8512,02X1,810,678,040,69
    WaFi-Mittelwerte
    Mittel - Schlusskurs29,6412,9813,6315,392,724,156,992,8311,68X1,560,506,330,36
    Mittel - 7 Tage29,9313,6413,6914,992,823,706,952,9411,37X1,850,618,420,72
    CDU/ CSUGrüneSPDAfDLinkeFDPBSWFreie W.AndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Umfragen
    ("Sonntagsfragen")
    Forschungsgruppe Wahlen30,0014,0014,0014,003,004,007,000,0014,002,040,799,411,2213
    Infratest dimap - ARD29,0014,0015,0014,003,004,006,003,0012,002,140,9410,241,3015
    Forsa34,0014,0016,0015,002,003,004,003,009,003,341,8620,894,5419
    Insa29,0013,0014,0016,003,004,007,003,0011,001,710,577,380,523
    Ipsos30,0015,0015,0014,003,005,007,003,008,002,571,2212,572,9117
    YouGov29,0015,0016,0020,004,004,006,000,006,004,332,6124,7412,4120
    Wahlkreisprognose30,0013,5012,5015,502,504,507,502,5011,501,860,658,440,765
    Weitere Umfragen

    Wahlfieber auf X - (1)29,7013,5014,7017,302,803,206,003,109,702,120,9310,011,3114
    Wahlfieber auf X - (2)29,4014,7013,0015,002,903,406,102,9012,602,220,9510,821,5616
    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
    Dawum29,7013,9014,0014,702,904,307,002,9010,601,880,718,520,816
    Sendestoerung29,8213,2013,1415,632,893,486,192,9612,691,890,668,790,767
    PolitPro29,9014,3014,4014,803,004,206,502,9010,002,020,809,371,0911
    CDU/ CSUGrüneSPDAfDLinkeFDPBSWFreie W.AndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)29,5013,5013,5015,002,504,007,002,5012,501,950,769,330,768
    Prognosys Master Vote29,7014,3014,5014,302,903,706,602,8011,202,010,809,141,1910
    PrognosUmfragen29,0013,5014,5014,502,503,008,503,5011,002,701,1616,871,8418
    Romani seniores, Aenii30,1014,0013,5014,402,653,506,252,7512,852,030,829,141,2612
    MMI-Wahltrend29,7713,4613,4115,132,654,107,012,6811,781,680,607,020,561
    MMI-Wahltrend (vorläufig)29,8113,6513,3614,902,754,056,922,5611,99X1,770,677,600,70
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber-User30,2513,6313,5114,992,463,677,172,5811,751,960,719,450,809
    CDU/ CSUGrüneSPDAfDLinkeFDPBSWFreie W.AndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen29,6412,9813,6315,392,724,156,992,8311,681,700,637,000,65
    Umfragen30,0114,0814,4715,642,913,906,292,939,772,581,1712,722,95
    Expertenprognosen29,6113,7513,8814,672,643,667,072,8511,872,100,8310,301,12
    Wahltipps30,2513,6313,5114,992,463,677,172,5811,751,960,719,450,80
    Sonstige Prognosen29,8113,8013,8515,042,933,996,562,9211,101,930,728,890,89
    Summe
    Gesamtdurchschnitt29,8613,8214,1015,252,803,876,642,8710,792,260,9410,811,85
    Prognose (18:00 h)
    ARD29,5012,0014,0016,502,805,005,502,6012,101,140,323,470,18
    ZDF30,0012,5014,0016,003,005,006,002,5011,001,100,213,440,06
    Ergebnis 202430,0112,0013,9415,892,745,186,172,6711,40
    CDU/ CSUGrüneSPDAfDLinkeFDPBSWFreie W.AndereNoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Link prediction
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