Florida Republican Primary 2012

• Florida Republican Primary 2012

  Wanli, 09.01.2012 22:29

  #1
  

  Hier bekommt der Sieger sämtliche Delegierten zugesprochen, Mitt Romney führt auch hier momentan:

  Fav ratings of GOP candidates in Florida:
  
  a. Mitt Romney 73%/14%.
  
  b. Rick Santorum 59%8%.
  
  c. Newt Gingrich 59%/29%.
  
  d. Ron Paul 34%/47%.
  
  Overall preference:
  
  1. Mitt Romney 36%
  
  2. Newt Gingrich 24%
  
  3. Rick Santorum 16%
  
  4. Ron Paul 10%
  
  5. Rick Perry 5%
  
  6. Jon Huntsman 2%

  http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/01/romney-most-popular-in-florida.html

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• Florida Republican Primary 2012: Zahlen

  Wanli, 17.01.2012 15:10, Reply to #1

  #2
  

  PPP:

  Romney 41

  Gingrich 26

  Santorum 11

  Paul 10

  Perry 4

  Roemer 1

  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/01/16/romney_up_big_in_florida.html

  Sunshine State News:

  Romney 46

  Gingrich 20

  Santorum 12

  Paul 9

  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/01/17/romney_headed_for_landslide_win_in_ florida.html

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• Florida Republican Primary 2012: Pi mal Daumen

  Wanli, 22.01.2012 01:52, Reply to #2

  #3
  

  538 überschlägt mal eben, wie Florida abstimmen würde, wenn die einzelnen Flügel innerhalb der GOP genauso wählen wie in South Carolina:

  According to tonight's exit poll from South Carolina, 37 percent of voters describe themselves as very conservative, 32 percent as somewhat conservative and 32 percent as moderate or liberal.

  By contrast, in Florida in 2008, 27 percent of voters said they were very conservative, 34 percent somewhat conservative and 38 percent moderate or liberal.

  Mr. Gingrich holds a solid lead over Mr. Romney among both very conservative and somewhat conservative voters in South Carolina tonight, according to the exit polls. Mr. Romney does have the edge among moderates, but only by 5 percentage points (35 percent to 30 percent).

  In fact, if you weight tonight's South Carolina vote to resemble Florida's ideological dispositions from 2008, Mr. Gingrich would still win there by a 37 to 29 margin.

  There are other factors working in Mr. Romney's favor in Florida, however, like the fact that many voters already cast ballots there before his recent polling slide.

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/21/live-coverage-of-the-south-c arolina-primary/

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• Florida Republican Primary 2012: 102%, dass es Gingrich oder Romney ist

  ronnieos, 22.01.2012 11:23, Reply to #3

  #4
  

  Bei

  Bei Intrade wurden für einen Sieg von Romney zuletzt 6.19$  gezahlt - für Gingrich  4.01$    - wobei sich Romeney nach einem Einbruch heute stabilisiert

  http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=751751

   ... alles Momement aufnahmen -  kaum ausgeschrieben ist der spread bei Gingrich  4.12/4.38

  Also Amerikaner, die Geld einsetzen, favorisieren noch (knapp) Romney und das alles ohne neue Umfragen - die kónnten alles umwerfen.

  Klasse, wie da im den threads mit Falschinformationen um sich geworfen wird:

  "jebb bush to endorse Romney next week"  direkt neben "jebb bush not to endorse Romney" 

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• Florida Republican Primary 2012: Ausblick

  Wanli, 22.01.2012 18:38, Reply to #4

  #5
  

  Ganz gute Zusammenfassung:

  *** Romney’s two advantages in Florida: But Romney has two advantages as we head into Florida on Jan. 31: money and early voting. Romney and the pro-Romney Super PAC Restore our Future have purchased more than $7 million of airtime in the Sunshine State. And how much advertising have Gingrich and his allies purchased? Zero. Also, per NBC’s Jamie Novogrod, more than 185,000 Republicans have already cast their votes via absentee ballot. And around 12,000 more Republicans have participated in early voting in the five counties where polling opened last week. What’s more, the snow birds are currently in Florida, and they’re more your Romney Republicans than Gingrich Republicans. So, despite his loss in South Carolina last night, Romney has to be the overwhelming favorite in Florida.

  *** Romney’s disadvantage: Florida isn’t New Hampshire: But the GOP electorate in Florida has the potential to be unkind to Romney. Think South Carolina but with Cuban Americans in Miami thrown into the mix. According to the 2008 exit polls, 61% of Florida Republican primary voters considered themselves conservative (68% said they were conservative in South Carolina last night). And remember: Florida’s primary is closed, meaning that independents don’t get to vote. After all, it’s the same electorate that picked Rick Scott in 2010 over establishment favorite Bill McCollum. But the good news for Romney: Per the ’08 exits in Florida, only 39% were evangelicals or born-again Christians (compared with 65% who said they were evangelicals in South Carolina last night).

  http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/22/10210334-first-thoughts-the-race -is-on

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• RE: Florida Republican Primary 2012: Ausblick

  Wanli, 23.01.2012 00:39, Reply to #5

  #6
  

  TPM nimmt sich Umfragezahlen für Florida zur Brust und kommt zu dem Schluss: Hier waren die Schwankungen in den letzten Monaten noch heftiger als anderswo.

  Ende November lag Newt hier bei 45,8%, Romney bei 16,3%. Seitdem hat sich die Lage drastisch verändert, momentan notiert Romney bei 44,2%, Gingrich bei 21,9%.

  Ein gigantischer Swing in den letzten zwei Monaten also; Newt lag auf dem Höhepunkt seines letztjährigen Umfragenhochs in Florida über seinen Werten in anderen frühen Vorwahlstaaten (in Iowa war sein bester Wert vor dem Jahreswechsel 30,3%, in New Hampshire 24% und in South Carolina 37,3%).

  Schwingt das Pendel in Florida nun wieder zurück oder nicht? Bin sehr gespannt auf die ersten Erhebungen dort nach dem Primary in South Carolina am Wochenende.

  Just because Newt was doing great two months ago doesn’t mean he’s going to do great again. But it’s no coincidence that Newt’s support rose faster and further in Florida than in any of the other four early states. It tells me Florida is ripe ground for Newt to do really well.

  http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/01/look_closer_at_those_florida_numbe rs.php?ref=fpblg

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• Florida Republican Primary 2012: Umfrage

  Wanli, 23.01.2012 07:18, Reply to #6

  #7
  

  Insider Advantage

  Gingrich 34

  Romney 26

  Paul 13

  Santorum 11

  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/01/23/poll_gingrich_leads_romney_ in_florida_112865.html

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• RE: Florida Republican Primary 2012: Umfrage

  Wanli, 23.01.2012 15:56, Reply to #7

  #8
  

  Rasmussen

  1. Newt Gingrich 41%
  
  2. Mitt Romney 32%
  
  3. Rick Santorum 11%
  
  4. Ron Paul 8%

  http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/01/rasmussen-gingrich-vaults-to-first-in.html

  

  http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/01/gingrich-leads-in-florida.html

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• RE: Florida Republican Primary 2012: Umfrage

  saladin, 24.01.2012 02:26, Reply to #8

  #9
  

  ppp ist das 3.institut mit neuen werten

  auch hier newt in führung

  mitt führt bei den bereits abgegebenen stimmen (aber nur 43:40)

  santorum-wähler befürworten newt über mitt mit 2:1

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• Florida Republican Primary 2012: erste Debatte / dritte Umfrage

  Wanli, 24.01.2012 07:08, Reply to #9

  #10
  

  Die meisten Kommentatoren sehen eher Mitt als den Sieger in dieser Runde, einheitlich ist das Meinungsbild jedoch nicht:

  http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/01/florida-nbc-debate-reax.html

  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/01/23/gop_debate_reaction.html

  Ungewöhnlich war, dass das Publikum zum Schweigen verdonnert war, anders als bei den meisten anderen Sendern. Das kommt Gingrich weniger entgegen, ist doch das Aufpeitschen der versammelten Meute seine Spezialität; dass Romney ihn zu Beginn ziemlich energisch attackierte, war auch nicht hilfreich. Ein Desaster war es aber nicht für ihn; die Debatte scheint generell eher langweilig gewesen zu sein:

  The quiet room made every line land softly. As a result the participants came off more like a sober think-tank panel than a pack of crazed, fear-mongering gladiators performing before a crowd baying for the blood of President Obama, immigrants, and gay people.

  http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/01/newt-evades-and-mitt-quits-making-sense.htm l

  Wichtige Momente hier:

  http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/23/best-moments-from-the-nbc-repub lican-debate-in-tampa-video.html

  ---

  Die Umfragezahlen entwickeln sich weiter recht günstig für Newt:

  PPP (Florida) - mMn die vertrauenswürdigste der in den letzten Tagen veröffentlichten Erhebungen:

  Gingrich 38

  Romney 33

  Santorum 13

  Paul 10

  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/01/24/gingrich_opens_up_lead_in_florida.h tml

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