Slovenian parliamentary elections

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  • Slovenian parliamentary elections

    Wahlfieber Team, 26.01.2026 01:26
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Parlamentswahlen in Slowenien dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2018.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können en detail an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

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    Legende (für den Schnelleinstieg):

    • MAF: mittlerer absoluter Fehler --- oft auch MAE - Mean absolute error
    • MAPF: mittlerer absoluter prozentualer Fehler - oft auch MAPE- Mean absolute percentage error
    • sMAPE: symmetrischer MAPF
    • MQF: mittlerer quadratischer Fehler--- oft auch MSE- Mean squared error
    • NOTE: aus den zuvor angeführten Fehlern ermittelte Gesamtgüte einer Prognose (angelehnt an gängige Schulnoten)
    • R: Abkürzung für "Rang" (innerhalb der in der jeweiligen Tabelle aufgeführten Prognosen)
    • X: diese Prognose fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein

    Anmerkungen:

    Quellen:

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      Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Parlamentswahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

      *******

      *******

      Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

      Fehlermeldungen, Anmerkungen oder Ergänzungen bitte ggf. per Mail an den Support oder an geeigneter Stelle im Forum.

      Link prediction
      There is 1 a reply to this post.

    • Slovenian parliamentary election, 2018

      Wahlfieber Team, 26.01.2026 03:12, Reply to #1
      #2

      ..

      Parlamentswahl Sloweniwn 2018 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

      ...

      SDSLMSSDLevicaNSIPABDeSUSSNSAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
      Ergebnis 201420,700,006,0034,506,005,604,4010,2012,60
      Prognosen 2018
      Wahlbörsen
      Wahlfieber21,2416,578,078,928,419,207,650,0019,943,682,149,625,816
      Umfragen
      Mediana27,1212,818,928,819,046,526,525,1515,101,990,904,421,183
      Parsifal28,6414,727,917,446,017,281,586,1720,254,512,4815,197,629
      Ninamedia26,1011,5012,809,808,307,303,207,9013,103,181,609,283,835
      Valicon20,7714,7215,829,7710,878,535,235,788,534,722,6410,7113,4810
      Episcenter26,6014,7016,105,608,508,202,804,9012,604,422,4412,829,238
      Delo Stik21,8319,4213,325,968,127,233,814,5715,744,162,2910,469,507
      SNS23,3420,9216,455,234,086,761,536,2515,436,553,5921,4819,7411
      Expertenprognosen
      Wahlfieber Team (MMI)26,0013,0012,009,009,007,004,006,0014,002,251,035,501,544
      MMI-Wahltrend25,1113,4710,459,138,697,515,344,7615,541,360,482,420,291
      Wahltipps
      Wahlfieber Average24,4814,0710,449,038,747,745,424,0416,061,710,643,710,532
      SDSLMSSDLevicaNSIPABDeSUSSNSAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
      Durchschnittswerte
      Wahlbörsen21,2416,578,078,928,419,207,650,0019,943,682,149,625,81
      Umfragen24,9115,5413,057,527,857,403,525,8214,394,262,2812,059,23
      Expertenprognosen25,5613,2411,229,078,847,254,675,3814,771,840,753,960,91
      Wahltipps24,4814,0710,449,038,747,745,424,0416,061,710,643,710,53
      Gesamt-durchschnitt
      Summen25,1214,0111,518,558,617,724,554,9914,953,591,849,606,61
      Exit Polls
      Mediana24,4012,609,309,809,506,605,505,0017,301,200,381,890,25
      Ergebnis 201824,9212,609,939,759,337,165,114,9316,27
      SDSLMSSDLevicaNSIPABDeSUSSNSAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
      Link prediction
      There is 1 a reply to this post.

    • Slovenian parliamentary election, 2022

      Wahlfieber Team, 26.01.2026 03:23, Reply to #2
      #3

      ..

      Parlamentswahl Sloweniwn 2022 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

      ...

      SDSLMSSDSMCLevicaNSIZDEJRESAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
      Ergebnis 201824,9012,609,909,805,802,900,000,0019,70
      Prognosen 2022
      Umfragen
      Mediana24,972,758,033,197,927,9226,623,0815,513,892,009,679,066
      Parsifal27,563,697,394,125,686,5326,282,7016,053,681,936,689,995
      Ninamedia25,114,498,443,747,377,1628,953,1011,653,371,768,635,684
      Odmev24,404,2210,844,527,2310,5423,193,0112,055,502,9513,3919,078
      Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
      PolitPro25,305,0010,5012,607,905,7023,202,107,707,954,3422,1331,659
      Politico25,004,0010,002,007,006,0026,002,0018,004,812,5713,9412,237
      Expertenprognosen
      Wahlfieber Team (MMI)26,003,508,003,507,007,0029,003,0013,002,941,506,275,052
      MMI-Wahltrend25,273,688,623,117,327,0227,642,7914,543,231,606,736,863
      Wahltipps
      Wahlfieber Average25,633,598,313,307,167,0128,322,9013,773,001,486,045,811
      SDSLMSSDSMCLevicaNSIZDEJRESAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
      Durchschnittswerte
      Umfragen25,513,798,683,897,058,0426,262,9713,814,592,3810,0914,75
      Sonstige Prognosen25,154,5010,257,307,455,8524,602,0512,856,363,4618,0321,94
      Expertenprognosen25,633,598,313,307,167,0128,322,9013,773,091,556,505,96
      Wahltipps25,633,598,313,307,167,0128,322,9013,773,001,486,045,81
      Gesamt-durchschnitt
      Summen25,473,888,904,457,187,2126,582,7413,594,512,3410,5613,54
      Exit Polls
      Mediana22,503,806,603,204,406,8035,802,6014,301,180,371,740,33
      Ergebnis 202223,483,726,693,414,466,8634,452,8614,07
      SDSLMSSDSMCLevicaNSIZDEJRESAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
      Link prediction
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