Senat 2020
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Breeze of Change
Wanli, 09.05.2020 13:50, Antwort aufAnders als noch vor wenigen Monaten dürften die Demokraten momentan um Haaresbreite in der Pole Position die Senatsmehrheit in der nächsten Legislaturperiode betreffend sein - sicher ist allerdings noch nichts, eine grosse Bandbreite an Ergebnissen scheint möglich.
An early look at the data finds that Democrats are the slightest of favorites to take back the Senate. The chance Democrats net gain at least 3 seats is about 3-in-5 (60%), while the chance they net gain at least 4 seats is about 1-in-2 (50%).
There is still a lot of uncertainty. Democrats could realistically end up anywhere from a net loss of 4 seats to a net gain of 11 seats, though a few more times than not, they'll end up in the majority.
Der Artikel wirft einen genaueren Blick auf die verschiedenen umkämpften Senatssitze. Etwas irritiert bin ich mit Blick auf Montana, wo der Artikel den demokratischen Herausforderer als klaren Underdog sieht.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/02/politics/senate-landscape/index.html
Eine Beobachtung am Rande: Die demokratische Basis wird ökonomisch stärker von Corona gebeutelt als die republikanische, was sich auch in der von den beiden Parteien jeweils präferierten Politik niederschlägt.
The coronavirus-driven economic downturn that last month pushed unemployment to its highest level since the Great Depression has been most brutal for groups that voted against Donald Trump in 2016 — a reality that may shape the political response.
A POLITICO analysis of demographic data released Friday by the Labor Department indicates that, so far, the people most likely to have lost their jobs to the Covid-19 pandemic are a very different group from those who became unemployed during the Great Recession of 2007-09 — many of whom were still struggling to regain their economic footing when they pulled the lever for Trump. (...)
Congressional Republicans are expressing unease about passing another coronavirus stimulus, and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R.-S.C.) said last week that a $600 emergency sweetener that Congress added in March to weekly unemployment benefits will be extended past July “over our dead bodies.” For now, such statements may not be politically costly even with unemployment nearing 15 percent, because the job losses haven’t engulfed — yet — an especially large proportion of Republican voters.
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/unemployment-2009-2020-great-recessio n/
EDIT
Das republikanische Drängen auf Lockerungen des Lockdown ist in Umfragen nach wie vor eher unpopulär.
